Ouch. On one hand, Australia's long-running campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.
The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to host the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.
This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.
This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.
The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.
This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".
Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.
DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.
There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.
That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.
In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result possible.
Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.
There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.
Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it gets started.
But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on climate change.
The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.
Turkey clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the Australian bid.
However, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by Australians.
Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with some cover.
President Erdoğan is seen as close to the Russian leader. Some countries worried about a summit hindered from the leadership if his administration managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.
A path through was needed. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.
Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.
This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their success.
"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."
There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?
Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the best chance available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.
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