The typical figure of daily killings per month in Mexico has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per new administrative data. But, public safety analysts have warned that homicide data might not point to enhanced countrywide safety.
Officials reported an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in last November versus almost 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidential office in the previous September. This announcement was provided by the chief of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on Tuesday.
“The result in homicides that we have seen during these past months is very important,” the President stated, adding that last month the lowest number of homicides were registered for any single November in the past decade.
Fierce cartel rivalries, alongside the administration's heavily militarised efforts to combat the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in recent years. The figure peaked at a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's national statistics agency.
That gave Mexico a murder figure over 4x higher than the United States. However, homicides have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has attributed her national security approach for an seemingly sharper reduction in killings in the current year.
At a news briefing in August, the President stated: “We have a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed tracking town by town in some cases. The plan works. And we have to persist at it every day.”
The key components of Sheinbaum’s safety plan involve:
But, public safety experts warned that focusing solely on murder numbers to paint a picture of pacification was misleading. This is particularly true considering the uptick in different crimes such as people going missing.
“It would be very good news if this were a reduction, but I think we must not just concentrate on the homicide data and think: ‘Alright, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”
As reported by the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the same period last year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain regions have risen by as much as 200%.
“Statistics on homicides is no longer reliable for gauging the situation of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the inclination to correctly identify and classify bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through abductions.”
Vargas noted that using monthly averages of daily killings was additionally problematic because it may mask periods when there were notably elevated levels of murders.
“Employing the per-day mean renders surges of violent crime less visible,” he said.
An area where the administration can cite the success of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 individuals were arrested between last October and November 2025 for serious offenses, per government data. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.
“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas.
But in spite of these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with extreme violence, with several states in the grip of cartel-related conflict. Recently there was a high-profile assassination of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the last 12 months.
Weeks after, thousands of youth took to the streets in Mexico City and across the nation to voice their anger at graft and narco-violence.
“The administration presents [data] in a way to construct a picture of improvement. Politically it’s highly effective, socially it’s very questionable,” Vargas said.
A seasoned gaming enthusiast with over a decade of experience in lottery analysis and casino reviews.
